Week 9 NFL bets Stark trends for primetime games in 2019 plus teasers parlays line moves and more tips

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This week, our three primetime games feature three road favorites. Two of those games aren't even expected to be close, and in an upset, the one that is involves the . Three primetime home 'dogs might seem like a great opportunity for bettors to try and capitalize on home-field advantage in front of a national audience, but 2019 has been an odd year when it comes to primetime and road teams in general. We talked about road teams a few weeks back, but rest a sured they're continuing to roll and have now posted a 72-43-2 mark against the spread this year, per Vegas Insider. But I want to talk about primetime specifically. We've Willie Gay Jersey had 25 primetime games in all this year, a healthy sample size, and home teams have managed to cover just nine times in that stretch despite going 14-11 straight up. That includes just one cover in the last eight games under the lights, which came in the ' beatdown of the on "Sunday Night Football." Favorites have been more favorable, going 14-11 ATS in primetime. With the ballooning to 10-point favorites in Arizona on Thursday night, I wanted to do a little more digging on that specific scenario. I only found five previous instances where a road team was favored by double digits in a Thursday night game, but those five went 4-1 against the spread and straight up. The one non-cover and outright lo s came 10 years ago, when the went to Cleveland as 10-point favorites but . A more interesting trend we may be able to take advantage of with primetime games is on the total. That's because the market isn't making the totals low enough in those games. Just once has the final total checked in at le s than 41 points, and in 18 games of our 25-game sample the total has been more than 45 points. The result? The under is 19-6 so far in primetime this year. Those games that went over include three straight Thursday games in Weeks 4-6, Monday night games in Weeks 1 and 3, and this past Sunday's matchup between the and . Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before Josh Gordon Jersey you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . My picks Over at SportsLine, I have , and I'll be posting more over the next few days. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. Big line moves (lookaheads) -3 at (was DEN -1.5) 49ers -10 at (was SF -7) -3 at (was NYJ -5.5) at -2 (was Pick 'em) Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. The Browns-Broncos line moved 4.5 points with the injury to , which seems like it might be a little light. Flacco might not be a world-beater, but he's been a starting NFL quarterback for a long time, while has never attempted a regular-season pa s. He hasn't thrown a pa s in any game with Denver, as he went 44 of 69 for 431 yards with no TDs and three picks this preseason as a member of the . The Niners continue to lay waste to all opponents, and their power rating has gone through the roof with the team 10-point road favorites on a Thursday night. We went over how road favorites of double digits have fared on Thursdays at the top of this article. The Jets had another awful showing last week, while the Dolphins hopped out to a 14-0 lead on the Steelers Marcus Allen Jersey before collapsing. That was enough to move the line 2.5 points, but it will be interesting to see if some of that was the expectation the Jets would trade multiple key players before the deadline. There was no immediate post-deadline movement in the line, but we'll be watching to see if it rises any closer to the lookahead number. The Lions-Raiders move is interesting -- the Lions won fairly easily against the , though a late touchdown made the final score close, while the Raiders went back and forth with the before ultimately losing. It looks like the market is giving Oakland a big boost for their strong play in the lo s. Where DVOA disagrees with line Texans -2 vs. in London at -9.5 Jets -3 at Dolphins Packers -3.5 at Part of my research each week is calculating the DVOA (or DAVE, which is partially reflective of preseason projections) as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. Now that defensive adjustments have been included following Week 4, I'll include that analysis here. Football Outsiders has the Jaguars as a better team than the Texans, so on a neutral field in London (a trip the Jaguars obviously have far more familiarity with anyway), this is a case of the wrong team being favored. The metric considers the Jags about a half-point better on a neutral field, so if you want to give them a slight bump for their frequency in London we can make the line about Jaguars -1 in this section. The Bills haven't been all that good according to DVOA, ranking 25th in the NFL. While that's still better than the 29th-ranked Redskins, Buffalo's status in the bottom quarter of the league means this line is far too high for DVOA. A line of about Bills -6 makes more sense for this metric. The DAVE rating for the Jets I've used reflect the team's value with moving forward, while the DVOA rating reflects the early run with the starter sidelined. When you use the DAVE number and consider how historically bad the Dolphins have been, this number is way off. Our metric would make it Jets -7.5. In Packers-Chargers, the home team grades out as the 22nd-best team in the Mike Hughes Jersey NFL, and with me only giving them one point of home field advantage for a game that should be heavy on Packers fans, that's enough to qualify Green Bay as a value here. Our metric says the line should be more like Packers -5. Fading the public 49ers -10 at Cardinals Packers -3.5 at Chargers If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night. The 49ers check in with 82% of the bets, so this qualifies for a fading-the-public bet on the Cardinals. Remember, the Cards are also a play for anyone wanting to fade a huge lookahead move as well. However, I'm sure many people will be hesitant to step in front of the San Francisco buzzsaw right now. The Packers are an overwhelming public play right now with 92% of the bets. I don't know who's enthusiastic to bet the Chargers, so it makes sense. Other sides at 70% of the tickets or more right now include -4, PK, Browns -3 and Cowboys -7. Underdog parlay of the week Jaguars +110 vs. Texans in London +190 at Eagles The Jaguars are an obvious pick after their appearance in our DVOA section, but there isn't much out there I like as a second team. I went with the Bears here because that was a relatively big lookahead move as well, with the Eagles only favored by three before Sunday's results. If these two cash, we're looking at a +500 payout or so. After a few weeks of one cash and some close calls, this came nowhere close last week. The Bucs and Chiefs were in the mix until the end of their games, while the Panthers were nowhere close. Teaser of the week Jaguars +8 vs. Texans in London Cowboys -1 at Giants The Jaguars make another appearance, so a blowout win by the Texans would be disastrous for our exotic picks here. However, with the Houston defense already looking suspect before losing J.J Kansas City Chiefs Jersey . Watt, we should feel like we can get a backdoor cover late if needed here. The other leg of our teaser involves a fresh Cowboys team on the road off the bye getting the win against a struggling Giants team. Other sides I'd consider using for a teaser if you like them include Washington up +15.5, Chicago up to +10.5, either side of Colts-Steelers to +6, Lions up to +8 and down to pick 'em. The teaser of the week is just 4-4 this year after a 12-5 run in 2018, but we were able to cash last week after the Bucs kept things close against the and the Colts pulled out a win after we teased them down from -6 to pick 'em.
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